[Warrant Perspective] Xiaomi Shows Technical Buy Signal, How to Position High-Leverage Warrants?

The stock closed at 38.76 yuan for the day, down 1.47% in a single day, with a trading volume reaching 7.653 billion yuan. The previous day's share price moved below all major moving averages: MA10 (39.44 yuan), MA30 (40.49 yuan), and MA60 (42.71 yuan), showing a clear weak pattern; the RSI indicator was at 40, within the neutral range. Technical indicators summarized a 'buy' signal but with low strength of only 8, which is relatively weak. Among several oscillation indicators, the Williams %R indicator was in an oversold state but still gave a neutral signal, while MACD, ADX, and other indicators leaned towards selling. Overall signals were relatively divergent, reflecting the market digesting Xiaomi Group’s recent business performance.

On January 6, peers in Xiaomi Group’s industry showed mixed performance:

In the mobile device sector,$SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$closed at 67.1 yuan, down 0.96%. Its technical pattern is similar to Xiaomi's, both facing short-term moving average resistance;$AAC TECH (02018.HK)$closed at 39.94 yuan, falling by 1.14%, with some oscillation indicators entering the oversold zone, presenting a 'sell' technical signal.

In the technology and internet stocks space, companies in the same consumer electronics ecosystem as Xiaomi Group,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$showed stronger performance on the day, closing at 75.5 yuan, up 2.58%. Most technical indicators suggested 'strong sell,' but the stock price rose against the trend, indicating divergence in capital flows.

Stocks related to smart vehicles performed actively,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Closing at HKD 99.2, a significant rise of 3.55%, its strong performance contrasts with Xiaomi Group's automotive business; $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Also rising by 3.03% to close at HKD 14.62, reflecting that the automobile sector was favored overall on that day.

Xiaomi's latest price this morning (7th) is HKD 39, with resistance levels at HKD 40.5 and HKD 42.4, while support levels are seen at HKD 38 and HKD 35.9, with a probability of increase of 56% and a 5-day volatility of 5.5%.

Reviewing the recent performance of popular derivatives related to Xiaomi, several put warrants and bearish certificates issued on January 2, 2026 performed notably in the following two days. Among them, $HSXIAMI@EP2604A.P (22196.HK)$ The increase reached 21% after two days, during which Xiaomi's underlying stock fell by 3.77%; $UBXIAMI@EP2604A.P (22136.HK)$ Another product rose by 16% after two days, also achieving a good rebound following the downward trend of the underlying stock. Regarding bearish certificates, $HS#XIAMIRP2808C.P (61122.HK)$ The increase reached as high as 60% after two days, $UB#XIAMIRP2808D.P (62287.HK)$ Another certificate gained 55%, showing that the underlying stock’s decline triggered substantial elasticity in bearish products, fully demonstrating the magnifying effect of high Delta sensitivity on warrant and bearish certificate returns amid stock fluctuations.

Considering Xiaomi's current stock price movement and derivative pool status, two high cost-effective targets have been selected for reference.

The first is $BIXIAMI@EC2605B.C (22823.HK)$ With a strike price of HKD 45 and actual leverage of 6.6 times, its core advantage lies in having the lowest implied volatility among similar products, effectively reducing the risk of warrant price volatility, making it suitable for those optimistic about Xiaomi breaking through short-term moving average resistance while pursuing cost efficiency.

The second is $JPXIAMI@EP2606B.P (16286.HK)$ with a strike price of 38.53 yuan, offering an actual leverage of 4.5 times. This product has the lowest premium and implied volatility among its peers, with sufficient liquidity. For investors who believe Xiaomi may test the support level at 38 yuan in the short term, this represents a relatively balanced choice between risk and flexibility.

Risk Warning:It is important to note that most of Xiaomi's call warrants currently face resistance from short-term moving averages. If the underlying stock fails to break through the resistance level at 40.5 yuan, the call warrants may be subject to accelerated time decay. It is not advisable to blindly chase high prices. Additionally, some bearish derivatives have strike prices close to the current stock price. If Xiaomi experiences a short-term rebound driven by the automotive sector, related put warrants and bear contracts may face price correction pressure, especially products close to the knock-out price. Investors should be wary of the risk of forced redemption triggered by short-term rebounds.

Xiaomi’s technicals are showing a 'buy' signal, but the strength is weak, with mixed performance among stocks in the sector. Would you choose low implied volatility call warrants to position for a rebound, or low-premium put warrants as a defensive hedge against adjustments?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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