[With Prizes] Big poll in the investing community! Who do you think is the best candidate to succeed Powell?

Emergency unlimited QE in 2020: In response to the US stock market circuit breakers caused by the pandemic, decisively launched 'unlimited QE', successfully pulling the market back from the brink of collapse and initiating a bull market.

Re-nominated in 2022: Despite being a Republican, he was still nominated for reappointment by Democratic President Biden, stabilizing market confidence amid inflation and interest rate turmoil.

Averted 'Lehman 2.0' at the beginning of 2023: In response to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, swiftly collaborated with multiple departments to launch the BTFP program, preventing financial panic from spreading.

'Powell Pivot' at the end of 2023: First signaled discussions about interest rate cuts by the end of the year, this 'dovish pivot' directly triggered the Christmas rally and subsequent bull market of the year.

Defended independence in 2025: Faced with political pressure from Trump, adhered to 'data-driven, not politics-driven', safeguarding the Federal Reserve's decision-making independence.

@文主任: The buzz around Hassett is growing, but the market doesn’t seem to be trading from the perspective of 'loss of Fed independence.' Possible reasons include: 1. The market has repriced the concept of 'loss of independence'; 2. Hassett is 'one of Wall Street’s own'; 3. A short-term pain is better than a long-term struggle—profits first, deal with the rest later. --查看原文>>

@杨杨得億If the Fed leans more towards rate cuts, a relatively weaker dollar plus ample liquidity will push asset prices higher (short-term positive for technology and growth stocks). However, policy spillover and risk amplification will also increase — those who can truly win in the long term are still the 'physical chains necessary to turn AI into reality' — data centers, power generation, transmission and distribution, and green energy infrastructure.--查看原文>>

@花街S姐The choice of candidate is merely a carrier of noise; what truly matters is: what logic the market will use to price the cost of capital in the U.S. Will it follow the existing 'data-target-tool' reaction function to complete a predictable return to neutrality, or will the repeated discussion of institutional boundaries cause term premia to once again become the ceiling for valuations? The former implies downward revision of short-term rates and stability in long-term rates, allowing duration assets (especially high-valuation growth stocks) to benefit from interest rate dividends. The latter resembles a structure where short-term benefits are offset by long-term losses: you may soon see rising expectations for rate cuts, but at the same time, term premia will be repriced upward, possibly resulting in a net effect on valuations that isn't necessarily positive. Names set the narrative's beginning, but prices write the ending.--查看原文>>

@Food流油Hassett gains loyalty points and still leads slightly; however, Warsh’s momentum is strong (with Trump personally praising him and internal support pushing back against Hassett), making a reversal possible at any time. In short, both candidates favor rate cuts! The nomination of the Fed Chair typically doesn’t cause significant long-term volatility (markets focus more on actual policies than on candidates), but uncertainty often drives up volatility. Once officially announced, the removal of uncertainty usually brings a rebound.--查看原文>>