Short-term Technical Analysis of Kuaishou and Deployment Strategies for Warrants, Bull, and Bear Certificates

Currently, after a period of volatility, the share price of Kuaishou (01024) has shown a new technical pattern. According to data as of January 2, 2026, Kuaishou’s stock price rose 3.60% in a single day, closing at HKD 66.25, returning near several key moving averages, and showing signs of directional decision-making. The company's upcoming earnings report, as well as market expectations regarding its potential monetization of AI models, have become focal points for short-term investors. As of today (January 5), Kuaishou’s stock price surged to HKD 74.01, with an increase of 11.85%.

Technical Analysis: Key Level Contest and Momentum Interplay

The oscillation indicators show a mixed situation between long and short positions. The RSI indicator is in the neutral zone at 43, showing no overbought or oversold pressure for now. Meanwhile, the CCI indicator has issued a buy signal, while the momentum oscillator shows a sell signal; this divergence usually indicates that the market is building momentum and will soon choose a direction. Notably, the Bollinger Bands indicator recently gave a buy signal, meaning stock prices may find support amid volatility.

Support and Resistance Analysis: Establishing a Short-term Trading Framework

Based on technical patterns, Kuaishou's short-term price framework has become relatively clear. On the support side, the primary support level is at RMB 63.5, which is a recent small consolidation platform. If this position breaks down, the next stronger support area is near RMB 62.6, a level that has played a role multiple times. On the resistance side, the immediate resistance is at RMB 68.7, where it coincides with recent highs and some moving average pressures. The stronger key resistance is near RMB 70.2; breaking above this level could open up the possibility of challenging the higher range between RMB 70 and RMB 72.

Market Focus: Earnings Expectations and AI Monetization Prospects

Recent market sentiment revolves around two core factors. First is the upcoming earnings release, with the market expecting growth from its advertising and e-commerce businesses, providing fundamental support for the stock price. Second is the attention on the commercial prospects of its self-developed AI model 'Kelin.' Reports indicate that Kuaishou invests over RMB 10 billion annually in AI research and development, with its technological progress gradually gaining market validation, becoming an important variable affecting long-term valuation. However, there have been fluctuations due to market rumors, such as previous speculation about Kuaishou potentially expanding into self-operated e-commerce, which once triggered a sharp correction in the stock price. This reminds investors that while chasing hot trends, they should also be mindful of potential short-term uncertainties arising from related business model explorations.

Review of Recent Performance of Warrant Products

Over the past week, several derivative products related to Kuaishou demonstrated significant leverage effects. Reviewing the products mentioned on December 30, 2025, all showed considerable gains within the following two days. Among them, HSBC Bull Certificate 69413 $HS#KUASORC2607D.C (69413.HK)$ achieved a 14% increase when the underlying stock rose by 2.71%, demonstrating the leverage characteristics of bull certificates. Morgan Bull Certificate 57004 $JP#KUASORC2605B.C (57004.HK)$ performed even more prominently, with a rise of 15% during the same period, more than five times the stock's gain. In terms of call warrants, UBS Group Call Warrant 22762 $UBKUASO@EC2606B.C (22762.HK)$ and Bank of China Call Warrant 23201 $BIKUASO@EC2606C.C (23201.HK)$ both achieved a two-day rise of 12%.

Comprehensive Analysis of Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts

Based on an understanding of the underlying stock's trend, the use of derivatives can help investors make more refined short-term deployments. This analysis incorporates all the products you provided and categorizes them according to investment perspectives for ease of selection.

1. Bullish outlook: Choose call warrants or bull contracts

Investors who believe that Kuaishou’s stock price could break through resistance and challenge higher levels may consider the following call warrants and bull contracts:

* BOC Call Warrant (23201) $BIKUASO@EC2606C.C (23201.HK)$ and UBS Group Call Warrant (22762): These two products have the same exercise price of 77.05 yuan, offering approximately 4.9 times actual leverage. Their key feature is that implied volatility is at a relatively ideal level compared to similar products. Implied volatility is a crucial factor affecting warrant prices as it represents the market’s expectation of future volatility in the underlying stock. A stable and reasonable implied volatility means that the product price will be less influenced by market sentiment fluctuations, closely tracking the movement of the underlying stock. For investors optimistic about Kuaishou’s subsequent upward momentum, these terms offer an efficient way to participate.

* J.P. Morgan Bull Contract (60760) and UBS Group Bull Contract (67943) $UB#KUASORC2607A.C (67943.HK)$ : These two bull contracts provide highly efficient bullish tools. The J.P. Morgan Bull Contract (60760) offers approximately 6 times actual leverage, which is the highest among such products, with a stop-loss level set at 58.5 yuan. The UBS Group Bull Contract (67943) provides approximately 6.5 times actual leverage, with a stop-loss level of 59 yuan, and its advantage lies in having the lowest premium among the recommended products. Premium directly impacts investment costs; lower premiums mean the bull contract’s price deviates less from its intrinsic value, making it an important consideration for cost-conscious investors.

2. Bearish outlook or risk hedging: Choose put warrants or bear contracts

Investors expecting a potential pullback in the stock price or wishing to hedge their holdings should consider the following products:

* CICC Put Warrant (18971)$CIKUASO@EP2603A.P (18971.HK)$ and Morgan Put Warrant (19624): The strike prices of these two put warrants are 68.83 yuan and 68.33 yuan respectively, both close to the current key resistance level, providing tools for those bearish on short-term movements. Among them, the premium and implied volatility of CICC Put Warrant (18971) are the lowest in its category, which reduces holding costs. Morgan Put Warrant (19624)$MSKUASO@EP2603A.P (19624.HK)$ also has a relatively low premium, offering about 5.6 times actual leverage.

* HSBC Bear Certificate (54679): This bear certificate offers approximately 6.2 times actual leverage with a recovery price set at 75 yuan. During periods of sharp market fluctuations, bear certificates are often used as efficient short-term bearish tools due to their simple price structure and smaller impact from time decay. Choosing a bear certificate with a recovery price further away from the current price can effectively reduce the risk of forced recovery caused by short-term fluctuations in the underlying stock.

Interactive Q&A and Risk Reminder

Do you think that before Kuaishou's earnings announcement, the rise in implied volatility will have a stronger impact on the price of call warrants, or would it be more prudent to directly hold bull contracts to hedge against volatility risks? Feel free to share your thoughts.

Finally, it must be emphasized that all callable bull/bear contracts are complex leveraged derivatives with significantly higher risks than underlying stocks. Prices can soar or plunge, and investors may lose their entire principal. Callable bull/bear contracts are subject to mandatory recall mechanisms, and once the underlying stock price hits the recall price, the product will terminate immediately; R-type products might retain some residual value, but N-type products could become worthless. Before investing, carefully read the listing documents, fully understand the product characteristics, and make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

#Kuaishou Short-term #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Implied Volatility #Earnings Deployment #AI Monetization #Derivatives #Risk Management

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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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